So, What Did I Miss?

It’s been a while since I wrote a post, or really did anything in any of the CRE online communities.  This was not because I decided to never write again, or interact on Twitter.  I have two very good reasons for going off the map.  Ok, I have one very good reason, and another that [...]

And, We’re Baaack!

Michael Burry Profile on Bloomberg

Don’t Forget About Luck and Timing

It’s pretty easy to walk around and believe that everything you achieve is due to skill.  That mindset feeds our egos, so it naturally manifests easily.  However, luck and good timing have a lot to do with what we accomplish as well.

We’re closing a deal today on a commercial development site that had been widely [...]

This Time is Different

It’s a popular thing to ridicule the “this time is different” mindset that usually manifests at market peaks, but the same mentality also becomes prevalent in market troughs as well.  Think back to conversations you’ve had in the past two years and any time you might have suggested that the market would eventually recover to [...]

The California Boom and Bust Cycle

Over the Fourth of July weekend I had dinner in Coronado, across the street from the Hotel Del Coronado.  If you’re in Coronado, you almost have to walk through the Hotel Del, so we did.  The Hotel Del was built in the late 1800’s and was sort of an “if you build it, they will [...]

More Thoughts on Technical Indicators

Last week we had a discussion about the need for technical indicators in commercial real estate.  The discussion was started by REFM in this post.  I probably should have been more exact when I discussed what I would like to see.  I’m not necessarily that interested in an index per se, as I am interested [...]

A National Real Estate Index

This is a follow up on the REFM piece about a national real estate index.  I’ve written a few times about the introduction of technical indicators and metrics to what we do in real estate (see here, here, and here).

My primary point that I’ve made in the past is that you have to at least [...]

Would There Be Value In A National Real Estate Business Barometer Index?

Joe Stampone sent me a link to a post that REFM has up that I liked a lot.  The post discusses potential for a national real estate index and two such indices that exist today.  Check out the full post as I’ll be discussing it further today.

Why it was so challenging. The simple reason for [...]

Pricing Yourself Out of Upside

There are a lot of ways to think about this, one of the more common is what value investors call the Margin of Safety, but basically as an investor you don’t want to price yourself out of upside in an investment.  That sounds like a really simple and stupid thing to say, but investors regularly [...]